It is fair to say that it was to be expected that Hertfordshire would be placed in Tier 2 when lockdown is over.

But when this comment piece was first written - the version in today's print edition reflects this - it seemed possible the county might be able to move to Tier 1 by Christmas.

Talk yesterday was of returning "as soon as possible" to lighter restrictions, and with case rates in Hertfordshire falling it seemed that if people kept to the rules, infections might slow further.

Now we know this is not the case.

Hertfordshire County Council leader Cllr David Williams says tier 2 is "the right place for us to be".

As we reported, case rates have started to fall over the past week in Hertfordshire, showing that to some effect the lockdown does seem to have worked.

But Government data shows most districts in the county now have higher rates than they did under the previous tier system, with most districts reporting case rates of more than 100 per 100,000 people this week.

Cllr Williams says it is "highly, highly unlikely" anyone would want to release Hertfordshire from tier 2 before Christmas, saying there might be more of a realistic opportunity in six to eight weeks.

But Christmas is not cancelled and we will all be able to see more of our families than seemed likely a few days ago.

Nonetheless, staying in tier 2 does not mean we should drop our guard.

For Christmas to be as safe as possible for elderly and vulnerable relatives we need to drive down the amount of coronavirus circulating in the community - and think about whether it is safe to meet them at all.

If we all stick to the rules and maintain good hygiene and social distance, cases are likely to continue to fall and Christmas - and the New Year - really will be happy.

  • Note: This comment piece was updated on November 27